Targeted Killing and the Rule of Law (Cato Unbound Book 62011)
Martin Shaw critically examines the common assumptions of counter-terrorism warfare in his essay, "Risk-transfer militarism and the legitimacy of war after Iraq". Posner and Alan O. They conclude that "There are good reasons for allowing preemptive self-defense, quite possibly without Security Council authorization The potential proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction to rogue states and state sponsors of terrorism provides a rationale for invading dangerous states sooner rather than later.
Allowing every state to justify aggression in this manner is a clear recipe for anarchy. It would substitute name-calling and unilateral aggression for the rule of international law. Within any legitimate legal order, there are no criminal persons or states, but only criminal acts. There is no such thing as a rogue nation. There are only roguish acts, such as the promotion of terrorist activities and the unprovoked and harmful invasion of another state. Abstract: "When national security conflicts with individual liberty, reviewing courts might adopt one of three general orientations: National Security Maximalism, Liberty Maximalism, and minimalism.
National Security Maximalism calls for a great deal of deference to the President, above all because of his authority as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Liberty Maximalism asks courts to assume the same liberty-protecting posture in times of war as in times of peace. Minimalism asks courts to follow three precepts: the President needs clear congressional authorization for intruding on interests having a strong claim to constitutional protection; fair hearings should generally be provided to those who have been deprived of their freedom; and courts should discipline their own authority through narrow, incompletely theorized rulings.
Of the three positions, Liberty Maximalism is the easiest to dismiss; courts will not and should not adopt it. National Security Maximalism is far more plausible, but it is in grave tension with the constitutional structure, and it is built on excessive optimism about the incentives of the President. Perhaps most importantly, his argument does not adequately address the changing character of "wartime". It makes no sense to allow the historically limited wartime provisions of the past to set the constitutional standard for a condition of counter-terrorism which lacks conceivable historical limits.
Consequently, he too easily dismisses the appropriateness of a principled juridical protection of civil liberties in present-day U. Moreover, his Liberty Maximalist is a straw judge. John Parachini's introductory talk is a catalogue of good advice not taken. He emphasizes diplomacy, international law enforcement and prevention, rather than knee-jerk military action. In contrast, Anthony Cordesman is skeptical of, among other solutions, any kind of legal internationalism, though he is open to unsavory alliances with "repressive intelligence services" The United States likes to think of itself as the winner of the Cold War.
In all probability, to those looking back a blowback century hence, neither side will appear to have won, particularly if the United States maintains its present imperial course. It argues that the historical pattern of U. Unlike Sunstein above , Tushnet acknowledges that the dangers of terrorism constitute a longstanding "normal" security condition, not an episodic state of emergency.
Accordingly, a "categorical" approach to the protection of civil liberties is more appropriate than a "balancing" approach that would too readily trade liberty for security. According to Alberto Abadie's 'Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism' National Bureau of Economic Research "the risk of terrorism is not significantly higher for poorer countries, once other country-specific characteristics are considered.
More than three years later, 2 remains true. And yet, as Golding notes, even the U. As for reason 1 for repudiating the authority of the ICC, it effectively evaporated by July of when the Rome Statute pdf went into effect. Now U. Senate to ratify the Rome Treaty that President Clinton signed in , are the primary obstacles to the international legal prosecution of terrorist crimes against humanity. Arce, Simulation and Gaming Vol. Maria Keet. O'Connor hosts a large criminology website, which includes a survey of The Criminology of Terrorism.
Attempts to defend against it by hardening domestic targets cannot work, nor can one rely on pre-emption by taking the war to the terrorists before they attack. Hence, there is an urgent need to limit greatly the damage that terrorists will cause by curbing their access to nuclear arms and the materials from which they can be made In recent years, Phil Pub Pol Quart has published some of the best philosophical work on counter-terrorism warfare, including the following: "The Perils of Preemptive War " by William A. Unlike in major wars of the past, the response to this challenge of apocalyptic terrorism can be effective only if it is also widely perceived as legitimate.
And legitimacy can be attained only if the role of military force is marginal to the overall conduct of the war and the relevant frameworks of moral, legal and religious restraint are scrupulously respected. There has also been some extra-curricular controversy surrounding Honderich's book. In this first chapter he argues that "History is a proof that peoples demand the freedom that is their running of their own lives in a place to which their history and culture attaches them.
It is a freedom for which oppressed people have always fought. It is a freedom such that a threat against it in united almost all of us against Germany. It has been denied to the Palestinians. Palestinians have been denied by their enemy exactly the right of a people that has been secured and defended by that enemy for itself. The terrible inconsistency is plain to all who are unblinded, plain to very many Jews in and out of Israel. No hair-splitting will help. It is as plain to those of us who also see that it was a moral necessity after the second world war that the Jews come to have a homeland, in Palestine if not elsewhere.
We are engaged in a conflict with Totalitarian Political Islam and our enemy uses not only terror but also 'popular' riot, electoral politics, and ideological warfare. Foreign Policy," John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt argue that "saying that Israel and the US are united by a shared terrorist threat has the causal relationship backwards: the US has a terrorism problem in good part because it is so closely allied with Israel, not the other way around.
Available from Princeton WebMedia. II, issue 2, Winter Answer: Not very difficult at all. The proof is in this interesting report of the U. I include included it in this section because it addresses the issue of preventive military force in the global war on terror. I shall argue that the assumption that the choice between competing norms is mistaken. The proper choice is between adherence to the JWN and the creation of new institutions that would allow for a more permissive norm.
Not just alternative norms but also alternative combinations of norms and institutions need to be evaluated. I strongly agree with Buchanan's general claim that just war theory, broadly construed as ethical theorizing about the restraint of warfare, cannot simply invoke a priori intuitive principles, but must consider possibilities for normative change that might follow from changes in global institutions. But I'm not convinced by the suggestion that we can achieve adequate institutional restraints in the absence of an authoritative global juridical body like the ICC.
There is, of course, no a priori reason for thinking that human rights will be protected best by the ICC as currently established. But what global system of checks and balances can adequately restrain putatively preventive and democratizing wars in the absence of juridical institutions for the enforcement of international human rights law? Here's the paywall , and a critical response from Lars Vinx. Registration required for free access. Kamm critically examines the doctrine of double-effect and specifies conditions under which terrorism may be justifiable.
Michel Chossudovsky argues that it is in " Where was Osama on September 11, ? This means that we can effectively resist terrorism by developing biofuels and other alternative energy sources; but it also means that one of the American casualties of the war on terror may be the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge. Frey argues that "terrorism has been fought in the wrong way. Instead of focusing on deterrence and preemptive strikes, we should: 1 Reduce vulnerability by decentralizing society; 2 Strengthen positive incentives to leave the terrorist camp; and 3 Divert media attention from terrorist groups.
Christian Peacemaking and the Implications of a Global Police Force," Sojourners Magazine , March , Tobias Winright explores the prospects for Christian participation in a globalized "community policing" approach to counter-terrrorism. Thanks to Tobias for sharing the link.
The judiciary can only be expected to play a marginal role in the task of specifying the limits of executive power, and so far the legislative branch has offered very little in the way of clear and effective checks and balances. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, , pp. They see a national security apparatus in disrepair and a government that is failing to protect the public from the next attack In his view, which is more reasonable than the conventional wisdom, terrorist attacks should be considered as constitutionally and temporally limited "states of emergency" short of war.
Scheick look at the global war on terror as a "litmus test" for human rights and the rule of law. Abstract: "The rush to broaden executive prerogative in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks rests on a series of traditional assumptions about the nature of executive power that no longer hold water. In particular, the conventional conception of the unitary executive as best suited to the demanding tasks of crisis government is subject to criticism. Snauwaert argues that "In a number of ways the Bush Doctrine as a response to international terrorism is, tragically,undermining the international moral and legal order, thereby undermining the very order necessary for sustainable security against terrorism.
Also available here in html format. Further attacks are likely to persuade those elites that they must destroy democracy in order to save it. Historians may someday have to explain why the West's golden age lasted only years. The saddest pages in their books will be those in which they describe how the citizens of the democracies, by their craven acquiescence in governmental secrecy, helped bring about the disaster. At this point, who knows?
As Rorty himself once famously said, "Time will tell; but epistemology won't. Insofar as this appears to be the kind of response that Rorty wished to elicit, I guess I'm in accord. Follow these links to watch part one and part two of the video recording of Rorty's lecture. Priester defends a way of integrating military and criminal models for defining transnational terrorist organizations. Lieberman examines the legal difference between terrorists and freedom fighters in " Sorting the Revolutionary from the Terrorist : The Delicate Application of the 'Political Offense' Exception in U.
Satterthwaite examines arguments in favor of outsourcing torture, and finds them wanting. Pape argues that "Religious fanaticism does not explain why the world leader in suicide terrorism is the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. To advance our understanding of this growing phenomenon, this study collects the universe of suicide terrorist attacks worldwide from to , in all. In contrast to the existing explanations, this study shows that suicide terrorism follows a strategic logic, one specifically designed to coerce modern liberal democracies to make significant territorial concessions.
The essay presents a historical analysis of the modern development of irregular troops including what we would now call terrorists as elements in the theory and practice of political strategy and military tactics. The study records an emerging optimism that suggests that the GWOT is winning the hearts and minds of leading U. David argues that although targeted killings have "not appreciably diminished the costs of terrorist attacks and may have even increased them," nevertheless the practice is justifiable as a means of "providing retribution and revenge for a population under siege," and because it "may, over the long term, help create conditions for a more secure Israel.
The al-Harethi case thus helps to define the legal limits of targeted killing. Yoo, E. Posner, A. Sykes, and J. When examined in their terms, the Bush Doctine is best understood as an ethically hypocritical and shortsighted international discursive strategy. Its use of moralistic language in demonizing 'rogue states' for purely amoral purposes is normatively incoherent and discursively unsustainable. If it is a strategically rational piece of international communication, it seems designed to undermine globally shared normative meanings for the sake of short-term unilateral military advantage.
Strauss Center for International Security and Law hosted a panel discussion about the task of reforming the government's approach to military detentions If one rejects this legitimacy, one must object to all killing in war, targeted and non-targeted alike, and thus not support the view, which is criticized here, that targeted killings are particularly disturbing from a moral point of view.
Prieto argues that "sharp disagreements over national security and civil liberties, as well as errors and overreach in U. The study recommends that the United States reexamine the scope and limits of its war against al-Qaeda, treating national security and the protection of individual liberties as coequal objectives. Glazier argues that "Good faith application of law of war rules. Brunstetter takes the idea of the evil of terrorism seriously, yet gives Las Casas the final word of warning: "every nation, no matter how barbaric, has the right to defend itself against a more civilized one that wants to conquer it.
Federal government's strategic use of preventive counterterrorism prosecutions, "the entrapment doctrine must be restructured to keep FBI counterterrorism efforts targeted and focused and to safeguard innocent First Amendment activity from the reach of highly inchoate offenses, which are aggressively pursued with undercover informants.
But it's unclear how much further the fight against terrorism has to go. But there were plenty of terrorist adversaries. While he will be judged in part for his domestic achievements, Obama's counterterrorism choices are a major part of his legacy. The history of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula catalogues every dimension of frustration in combatting terrorism. Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently announced that it was severing its affiliation with al Qaeda, is now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. This means less than meets the eye, but it does say something about the local atmosphere in Syria.
Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed or ignored to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried. The Istanbul attack will renew calls to extend existing security screening at the front doors of terminals. But checkpoints create bottlenecks and queues of people waiting to get through them, which then become an easy target. As national security and war are being redefined for the digital age, Silicon Valley will need to be on the front line of counterterrorism.
Its inventors and entrepreneurs are driving the information revolution, and they must figure out how to protect vital systems against malevolent intrusions. Evidence suggests that the threat of terrorism need not affect individuals' behavior and travel decisions, not even in the wake of attacks such as those in Brussels and Paris. Anti-Muslim demonstrations complicate efforts to combat terrorism. They also exaggerate the threat, perpetuate overblown fears, and punish innocents who may be on America's side. If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
What effect did killing bin Laden have on al Qaeda's ability to pursue its jihadist goals? Does high-value targeting contribute to counterterrorist strategy more broadly? Does killing terrorist leaders work? Salah Abdeslam is suspected of being the logistics man for the November terrorist attacks in Paris.
And terrorist attacks have been carried out in its name in the West, including in America. But how serious is the threat that ISIS's brand of jihad will spread on a global scale? It could take a change in leadership in both Al Qaeda and ISIS and perhaps some compromises on mission and strategy, but there are enough points of confluence to make a united jihadist front a realistic and frightening possibility.derivid.route1.com/llmalo-deseo-n-1.php
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The NYPD's purging of its report on radicalization may give some satisfaction by symbolically breaking the connection between the current mayoral administration and the NYPD's previous intelligence and investigative efforts. But its significance seems questionable. Dwight and Steven Hammond were charged under a law enacted to fight terrorism, not rein in wayward ranchers.
Anti-terrorist laws should not be used to strengthen prosecutors' hands in nonterrorist prosecutions—it makes national security needs look like an instrument of oppression. The handling of terrorist threats on Los Angeles and New York City schools calls into question the ability of national and local government to coordinate a terrorist crisis involving two or more cities. While some level of comfort may be drawn from the fact that terrorists are not pouring into the country, there is no basis for complacency. Despite being the focus of renewed scrutiny, only three people involved in terrorist incidents have entered the United States via the visa waiver program in the past quarter-century.
Illusion of Justice
Terrorists almost always have the advantage. Theoretically, they can attack anything, anywhere, anytime. And governments cannot protect everything, everywhere, all the time. In Paris, the heavily armed terrorists reportedly struck at six locations, including restaurants, a football stadium, and a theater during a rock concert. It seems clear the killers must have had some confederates. That would mean some terrorists are still at large. A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure.
This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed. How should the United States respond to Russia's intervention in Syria's civil war? Here are five options intended to encourage rational thinking based upon realistic presumptions, not media or campaign-driven hype. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.
Since the American-led coalition bombing campaign began a year ago, ISIS has suffered some military setbacks and lost territory, but it also has been able to capture several more key cities in Iraq and Syria, and, despite the bombing, continues to attract a large number of foreign fighters. While terrorists and criminals joining forces is certainly a scary thought, it's nothing new and not something that works as simply in practice as it does on a white board. Still, it's a threat worth watching. The terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait are just the latest warnings that ISIS is turning its campaign into a global enterprise.
We have to accept that humans, no matter how well-trained they are or how dedicated they are to their mission, are just not very good at maintaining laser-like focus while performing repetitive tasks. That does not mean airport security can ever be completely given over to machines.
In light of recent kidnappings ending in the deaths of American hostages, appointing a 'hostage czar' may seem like a sound idea. But the creation of a high-profile position for hostage issues raises policy questions and comes with operational risks. Risk is unavoidable in fighting war or terrorism. Soldiers are sometimes felled by friendly fire, and civilians ostensibly on the sidelines become accidental targets.
It is unrealistic to believe that such tragedies can always be prevented. Risks can be reduced but never entirely eliminated. As the civil wars in Syria and Iraq continue, they sharpen the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias, threatening the stability of the region and attracting a steady flow of foreign volunteers, effectively turning Syria and Iraq into a terrorist factory.
Poverty and oppression may explain why people in some countries embrace violent extremism, but it does not account for the flow of Western volunteers or the dreamy allure of fighting for a faraway cause. Biographies of those who have reached out to participate in jihad suggest a variety of motives, including alienation, personal crises, dissatisfaction with empty spiritual lives, and adolescent rebellion. France and the United States follow different approaches in dealing with terrorist suspects.
This divergence reflects differences in the threat, historical experience, law, available resources, and public attitudes.
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France faces a more serious terrorist threat than the U. Predicting 'dangerousness' of potential terrorists is a hit-and-miss endeavor. Unless someone is waving a gun, it is extremely difficult. Even with direct access to the subject, parole boards, suicide prevention units and even trained clinicians get it wrong. The investigation will eventually fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge of the events leading up to the attacks in Paris, but some questions will remain unanswered. Embedded in the unknowns are some of the chronic dilemmas faced by counterterrorist authorities everywhere.
ISIS's decision to murder its Jordanian hostage by burning him alive may turn out to be a strategic miscalculation, but it is not madness. Through self-selection, continued fighting, and the exaltation of unlimited violence, ISIS has created a cult whose members command and revel in displays of ever-increasing cruelty. Why the shift away from beheadings? What does the execution mean for Jordan?
What implications will it have for ISIS? Today, the U. Intelligence services must continue to prevent terrorist assaults dispatched from abroad, head off new shoe and underwear bombers, intercept individuals returning from jihadist fronts with terrorist intentions, while at the same time uncovering and thwarting homegrown plots.
Among the lessons to be learned from the attacks in Paris are that terrorism has many audiences, Al-Qaida remains a threat, would-be warriors are unconcerned with the schisms among jihadist camps, Europe has a more serious problem, such an attack could happen in the U. The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today.
RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more. Many described the attempt to rescue Luke Somers from al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen as 'botched,' suggesting it was badly or carelessly planned or executed. Such measures aren't undertaken without a grim calculus weighing the chances of success against a range of other outcomes, most of which involve the hostages' doom. The existing pool of determined jihadists in America is very small and lacks training and experience, which fighting in Syria and Iraq would provide.
Returning jihadi veterans would be more formidable adversaries. Still, the threat appears manageable using current U. Critics say President Obama dragged his feet on sending more troops to Afghanistan, on addressing the dangers in Libya, on providing support to Syria's rebels and, most recently, on initiating military action against Islamic State.
But is that necessarily such a bad thing? More than 60 countries have joined the coalition against ISIS, with at least 12 participating in the air campaign. Eventually, this will be an impressive armada, but the campaign is still in its first stage, and most of the coalition participants joined the effort only recently.
Before embracing American boots on the ground as a strategy to fight ISIS, it's essential to be clear about what they're going to do, what they may require, and what risks may be entailed. In domestic debates about what the United States should do to blunt the threat posed by ISIS, Americans often forget the adversary also has options. A determined force, ISIS will counter the bombing campaign.
Some members of Congress do not want to vote on the use of military force until after the upcoming elections. Among these are some who fear their vote could cost them votes. Reports that the United States refused to pay ransom for journalist James Foley, only weeks before it released Taliban prisoners in exchange for Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, have caused confusion about U.
On the surface, it may seem inconsistent. Why release prisoners but not pay ransom? Disrupting the terrorist safe havens in Syria and Iraq would require a balanced approach that makes the business of terrorist planning and training difficult without entangling U. The threat of global terrorist enterprises has been enhanced by Western fighters joining al Qaeda offshoots like the Islamic State.
With the terrorist threat evolving, the United States has little choice but to evolve with it. While placing explosives inside a cellphone is plausible, it is almost impossible to do so with iPhones without rendering them non-functional, which is why the TSA is now checking cell phones are actually working. In seeking to quell the unrest in Iraq, the United States must balance its own interests with those of a diverse cast of players that includes Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, an unpredictable and violent jihadist front and others.
It is difficult to see how the United States can favorably affect the situation in Iraq without making a costly and risky investment. But that does not mean doing nothing. An immediate objective is to contain the conflict. Will the Obama administration be blamed for losing Iraq if it does not order military intervention?
Or will history judge the president wise for keeping U. As Americans debate assisting Iraq, including the possibility of military intervention, here are 10 things to keep in mind. As appealing as a successful mission to rescue the school girls held hostage by Boko Haram in Nigeria might appear, the use of U. The historical record suggests that when many hostages are involved, rescues are bloody affairs. Early RAND research on hostage situations showed that of all the ways hostages may be killed—during the initial abduction, trying to escape, murdered by their captors or during the rescue—79 percent died during the rescue.
Those charged with security must think in terms of degree security—not only screening passengers coming through the terminal, but also preventing unauthorized access to the aircraft from the air operations side of airport. Battles between rival rebel groups and within terrorist organizations are not uncommon.
Terrorists may compete with each other, sometimes in deadly battles, for the control of sources of financing. Some of the internal struggles are about who will lead. In the long run, al Qaeda might be able to reel in its more unreliable offspring, assert more control, demand their obedience, and call upon their resources to assist in global operations.
But without a stronger center, that possibility seems remote. Orlando Sentinel editorial writer Darryl E. They discussed last year's Boston Marathon bombing and the current threat of terrorist acts in the United States. Overall, divisions in Al Qaeda's ranks are good news for the United States. While the split will not end the jihadists' terrorist campaigns, it will preoccupy Al Qaeda's leaders and create uncertainty in its ranks. No one can predict with any certainty what terrorists might do next. The effects of security measures ought not to be measured solely in terms of prevention.
Different types of countermeasures produce different effects, such as deterrence, making it easier for security to intervene during an attempted attack, and providing visible security that reassures the public. Counterterrorism is not just about daring raids and drone strikes. It is about the hard work of collecting and sifting through vast amounts of information and managing relationships among organizations that often regard sharing information as an unnatural act. Russia seems to be taking prudent steps to make the games the safe and secure display of athleticism and international good fellowship they once were.
Recent terrorist attacks in Russia, though, present particular concern as the world's athletes descend on Sochi. With little chance of a negotiated end to the fighting, the war in Syria is likely to drag on. And even if somehow the bloodshed were to end relatively soon, the war will leave a legacy of odium and thousands of fighters that will threaten the region and beyond far into the future. The Volgograd attacks have brought renewed world attention to the unresolved conflict in the turbulent Caucasus.
The bombings no doubt have rattled Russian nerves. While Umarov's reputation among extremists will rise, President Putin's reputation as defender of Russia is at stake. The American investment in Syria thus far can be accurately described as timid and minimal. The United States can do more to assist the rebels without directly using American military power or sliding into a strategy of escalation.
Recent comments by key U. This has left some to wonder if the terrorism threat is increasing and if Americans are not as safe as they were a year or two ago. Three senior RAND analysts offer their take. With its current 47, screeners, an armed TSA would become the federal government's largest armed entity outside of the military. In the eyes of many, arming TSA screeners would change the image of the organization from a service aimed at guaranteeing safe air travel to an unwanted imposition of federal authority.
Shootings at airports are nothing new, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. In fact, they have regularly occurred worldwide in recent years. The motives have included terrorism, crime, and mental illness. Special operations to capture terrorists are more dangerous than drone strikes, and nimble terrorist adversaries will develop countermeasures to make them even more difficult.
But they are politically more acceptable and offer opportunities for intelligence and the visible delivery of justice. Other than as a geographic expression, Syria has ceased to exist, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, Bashar Assad's forces, at the moment, appear to have gained the initiative over a fragmented rebel movement. By most assessments, U. Critics have blamed this on inept diplomacy by the current administration, but this is only a partial explanation for America's loss of authority in the region. Like the measured attacks that may soon strike Syrian targets, America's first military attacks on Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, and Afghanistan were not aimed at regime change.
Their purpose was to retaliate for attacks or coerce changes in policy. Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.
Over the last 12 years, the campaign against al Qaeda has dominated U. From this perspective, al Qaeda has been a beneficiary of the Arab uprisings in general and of recent events in Egypt and Syria in particular. The longer the turmoil continues, the greater al Qaeda's possible gains, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. There is, at present, no known terrorist group in the United States that has the organization and human resources to assemble an operation of the complexity and scale of the Mumbai attack, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Involvement can transform members of the public from helpless bystanders into active participants in their own defense, thereby reducing fear and alarm, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Dealing with chemical weapons in Syria is a complicated and dangerous task, but nowhere near the challenge of securing a nuclear arsenal in a country consumed by crisis, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
The risk of overreaching in the name of homeland security is great. But the best and most likely outcome of this latest attack would be a measured security response built around Americans engaging anew in their own security, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world. The costly removal of Saddam Hussein won no applause, earned no gratitude, established no reliable ally, and produced no lasting strategic benefit, says Brian Michael Jenkins.
Coinciding with continuing, contentious hearings on the U. Looking at the turmoil in Libya following Qaddafi's removal; the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen; and Syria's ongoing civil war, it is easy to see why the Algerian government would view any manifestation of an Islamist resurgence as a threat that had to be promptly crushed, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
An attack of this complexity would have required months of reconnaissance, planning, recruiting of inside confederates, and training of participants. Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa.
RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments. Whatever its eventual outcome, Syria's civil war has already produced thousands of experienced jihadists who will continue to threaten the region for years to come, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. For many U. Terrorism does not attract the well-adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. It is time for a new approach to meeting America's next-generation aviation security needs, one that dodges the influence of politics and bureaucracies and relies instead on the resources and objectivity of independent researchers operating from a clean slate, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. The future threat posed by Iranian-sponsored terrorism will be contingent upon Iran's calculations of risk.
The current shadow war could escalate further if Iran thinks military attack by either Israel or the United States is inevitable and imminent or, obviously, if hostilities begin. Would-be jihadist warriors are angry, eager for adventure, out to assuage personal humiliation and demonstrate their manhood.
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Many appear to be motivated by personal crises—terrorism does not attract the well adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. While I have no doubt of Levin's determination to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens, incremental adjustments and seemingly small compromises, each sensible under the circumstances, can have a cumulative effect that erodes the very liberty we are trying to protect, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
A. Cases Reviewed
Over time, al Qaeda could just fade away. Always resilient, it may morph to survive. Developments on any of several fronts might even enable it to rise again. In a long contest, surprises must be expected, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Much of the debate over this bill has focused on the political issue of executive authority versus rule of law. In doing so it has overlooked the indirect and insidious effects the new law may have on the United States' largely successful counterterrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Fear has made al-Qaeda the world's top terrorist nuclear power, yet it possesses not a single nuke.
This is a lesson in how terrorism works, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. It may be possible that the development and deployment of improved security technologies and reconfigurations of security checkpoints will keep security one step ahead of terrorist adversaries, but it also may be an appropriate time to explore fundamentally new approaches, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Bin Laden was chairman of the board, not CEO, using his moral authority to urge his tiny army forward, pointing out new ways to kill Americans, encouraging followers to think outside the typical terrorist playbook, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Wary of communicating with each other and with al Qaeda's field commands, al Qaeda central could become more isolated, more dependent on its affiliates, allied groups, and individual acolytes, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
There may be some spontaneous acts by individuals enraged by Bin Laden's death who are inspired to follow him into martyrdom. But these are the spasms of reaction, not planned retaliatory operations, and will not demonstrate that Al Qaeda can survive Bin Laden, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Attacks on airports give terrorists the symbolic value they seek and guarantee the attention of the international news media, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation or interested in the world of espionage will want to read Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz's provocative new book, "Fallout: The True Story of the CIA's Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking," which tells a fascinating story whose characters come straight out of a spy novel, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. We have come through wars, depressions, natural and man-made disasters, indeed higher levels of domestic terrorist violence than that we face today, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. How should the United States counter homegrown jihadist terrorism?
With al Qaeda and its jihadist allies extolling recent terrorist exploits in the United States, we must anticipate further attacks by terrorists who have been recruited and radicalized here in this country, writes Brian Jenkins. Why aren't there more Times Square bombers? It is not a complaint, but a question that intrigues terrorism analysts. The lesson of the Times Square attack is that the terrorist threat posed by the jihadist movement continues to evolve. It is today more decentralized, more dependent upon al Qaeda's affiliates, allies and individual acolytes to continue its global terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Although al Qaeda appears to be coming under pressure in some dimensions, I remain wary of calling a tipping point, and I am even more skeptical about the prospect of a knockout punch, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Perhaps attention is turning to what really matters about the attempted bombing of Northwest Flight what it can teach us about aviation security, write. The revelation of the arrest in October of Colleen Renee LaRose, who had adopted the pathetically predictable nom de guerre Jihad Jane, once again focuses national attention on homegrown terrorism. But while worrisome, this threat needs to be kept in perspective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
High-ranking officials in Washington tell Americans that the threat from terrorists—principally self-radicalized homegrown terrorists—is high. Do terrorists pose a threat to Los Angeles? Two foiled airliner bombings bracket a decade that changed the world's understanding of terrorism as a new form of global warfare and has had profound ramifications we are still coming to grips with in the U.
President Obama's decision to send 30, additional troops to Afghanistan reflects a nation deeply divided on the war. There are compelling arguments on both sides, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins. The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper.
No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates--which means taking some risks ourselves--piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. His assertions merit more careful examination, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. The lawlessness along the mexicanborder has gone way beyond alocal crime wave: there has beena dramatic increase in armed robberies, not by lone gunmen but by heavily armed gangs.
Kidnappings and homicides are way up—and not just murders but beheadings It is starting to look like a terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. The debate over withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has effectively ended: Troops will begin withdrawing in early What is not yet entirely clear is what type of residual American force may remain in Iraq, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. We tend to describe terrorism as senseless violence, but it seldom is. If we look at the attacks from the attackers' perspective, we can discern a certain strategic logic, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Vice President-elect Biden was on solid historical ground. He was not implying that there is a band of bad guys hiding in some cellar conjuring up a crisis specifically to take on Obama. It is simply that, many new American presidents have confronted major foreign policy crises within their first year in office, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. When Sen. Joe Biden observed during the presidential campaign that a new President Barack Obama. Given American concerns about nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear terrorism, tying U. America is uniquely susceptible to nuclear terror.
Beneath our characteristic national optimism lie seams of anxiety, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. Will terrorists go nuclear? It is a question that worried public officials and frightened citizens have been asking for decades. American troops are likely to be needed in Iraq for years to come.
Few insurgencies end in less than 10 years, and the conflict in Iraq is an especially complex mixture of guerrilla warfare, sectarian violence and virulent organized crime, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in Washingtonpost. Nothing is more important in the global war on terrorism than reducing the production of new terrorists, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in United Press International.
Today's terrorists kill in quantity and kill indiscriminately. Preparedness requires improving intelligence, increasing security, developing effective response capabilities, and community involvement. Today's emblem of terror is Osama bin Laden. If bin Laden were a fictional villain created by Hollywood, his death or capture would end the reign of terror he has visited upon the world.
Al-Qaida would fold its tent. The violent jihad that bin Laden has endeavored to inspire and direct would fade away. And, as a result, the world would return to quieter and less threatening times. The arrest of Nathaniel T. Heatwole on charges of smuggling box cutters, bleach and matches aboard two commercial airliners reminds us that, despite significant improvements since Sept. They never will be. So-called allies have denounced U. Brian Michael Jenkins says they might not like the consequences of our inaction, either.
Without external assistance, Colombia cannot defeat the guerrilla-gangster Minotaur that consumes it. It is in our national interest to help. At the same time, it is necessary that we fully comprehend the harsh realities we and our Colombian allies face. This essay, which reflects the author's personal views, examines eight options and is intended to move the discussion beyond political bickering and wishful thinking. At an event commemorating his 50 years of service at RAND, Brian Michael Jenkins spoke about terrorism and the United States' response to it over the past several decades.
Based on research initiated in the s, this paper questions whether a no-ransom policy can be shown to be an effective deterrent. It reviews recent research, some of which supports the earlier findings, but one study reaches a contrary conclusion. Facing the threat of terrorism, the United States has devoted significant resources to preventing terrorist attacks.
S response that followed profoundly affected America's political landscape and its culture, perhaps permanently. Document submitted on July7, , as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, Document submitted on January 11, as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, Those arguing America needs a new domestic terrorism law haven't thought things through.
After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal. Discusses Saudi Arabia's December announcement that it was creating a military alliance of Muslim-majority nations to fight terrorism, with a focus on how the United States should respond to the initiative. RAND researchers examine whether a significant terrorist attack somehow inspires other terrorist attacks and whether analysis of historical attacks suggests that increases in terrorism can be anticipated in the shadow of a large attack.
More than a generation has passed since the BerlinWall came down, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, and the contest between East and West that had lasted more than 40 years ended. This essay examines how the dynamics of continuing conflicts will shape the future of Syria, Iraq, and the broader region. The conclusions point to a substantial gap between American national objectives and a realistic appreciation of the situation. Proceedings of a workshop aimed at developing new strategies to cope with asymmetric conflict in all its dimensions, including military operations, human rights, media, public opinion, political warfare, international diplomacy, and civil liberties.
Document submitted on April 17, as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on March 12, This Perspective seeks to examine the scope of the threat posed by Westerners who return to their homes after fighting in Syria and Iraq; what can be done to reduce the threat, and whether military action is necessary in combating it.
Recounts the proceedings of a conference to discuss recent RAND research on issues related to the potential reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, as well as the varying implications of TRIA's expiration, modification, and extension. This essay explores the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, including the characteristics and interests of the belligerents and foreign powers and the implications that the present course of events has for the future of Syria and the wider region.
A summary of discussions by participants at a seminar on domestic intelligence and information sharing as these relate to terrorist threats. This book examines the security of nuclear arsenals during revolts, coups, and civil wars.
The author examines the way in which society adapted to terrorism over the years. What previous generations saw as extraordinary, the current generation accepts as normal. Budgetary constraints, heavy passenger loads, and popular hostility toward screening procedures are all challenges to securing commercial aviation. After 40 years of focus on tactical measures, it is time for a sweeping review of aviation security.
Document submitted on August 24, as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, Document submitted on November 1, as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, on June 22, Video documenting a RAND-sponsored symposium of experts and journalists addressing assumptions and alternatives for U. Suggests ways the U.
Analyzes the November terrorist attack in Mumbai, India, and derives lessons learned from the attack and from the Indian response. Discusses the possibilities and options for America if neighboring country Mexico should become a failed state. The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.
Army, and political reform in the Arab world. Offering insights into vital questions of national security, presidential decisionmaking, and terrorist motives, world-renowned terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins examines how terrorists think about nuclear weapons and nuclear terror.
This research brief summarizes an assessment of U. The author presents an overview of U. The cover story warns that Americans have succumbed too much to fear, forsaking the things for which they are fighting; related essays discuss suicide attacks, lessons from Algeria, protection for emergency responders, and public health preparedness. Argues that new threats to national security represent fundamental changes in the ecology of conflict and that America's approach must evolve to meet the challenges; education, obesity, and wind tunnels in aeronautical research are also discussed. Examines the debate regarding the safety and efficacy of ephedra; also covers contrasting lessons from different educational interventions, a "systems approach" to counterterrorism, domestic abuse, public health, and genetic manipulation.
Presents eight commentaries outlining complementary strategies for the long-term war against terrorism; also discusses how American arts organizations can adapt to shifting audiences and how improvements in depression care pay for themselves. Traces the recent evolution of international terrorism against civilian and U.
Examines the information current at the time about the seven American hostages held in Lebanon. The author discusses the identity and nature of the captors, and then focuses on the degree to which Iran can influence or control them. Policy Implications. Reviews an unofficial meeting held in Moscow, January , , at which scholars and journalists from the Soviet Union and the United States met to discuss cooperative action against terrorism. This Note touches upon these questions as it addresses the policy issues that are likely to confront the Bush Administration.
Reviews the statistics on terrorist attacks — hijackings and sabotage — on commercial airliners since the first such hijacking involving an El Al plane in Considers the security challenges that Nicaragua might pose to U. Increasingly spectacular acts of terrorism have led to growing concern that terrorists will move beyond the symbols of society and directly attack its technological and industrial targets, including offshore oil platforms.
This study's primary concern is terrorist attacks against U. It first analyzes the motivations that might inspire various acts of nuclear terrorism. In a time of growing terrorist violence, assassination is sometimes mentioned as a countermeasure. This paper examines arguments for and against assassination as a means of combating terrorism. Discusses mistakes in diplomacy made by the U. Colombia's recent rash of kidnappings and terrorism has given rise to government efforts to put an end to the guerrilla warfare and political violence that have plagued the country for twenty years.
This report describes an analytical framework developed at RAND for studying the characteristics of terrorist groups and illustrates how that framework can be used to address broad questions about terrorists and their actions. This paper considers the forms terrorism is likely to take in the near future, the levels of violence terrorists are likely to use, possible changes in terrorist tactics and their choice of targets, the future role of terrorism in armed conflict, and prob.
This report is intended to serve as a primer for Air Force officers who must gain a basic understanding of the phenomenon of terrorism. Discusses the likelihood that terrorists will detonate or threaten to detonate a nuclear device. This paper discusses options open to the United States in responding to two kinds of terrorism: "Ordinary" terrorism, committed by diverse terrorist groups, is the responsibility of the local government, and the U.
Summarizes assessments of potential bilateral and multilateral measures for enhancing superpower stability in times of nuclear crisis. The volume of terrorist activity has increased in the last 15 years, terrorism has grown bloodier, and there is increasing use of terrorism by governments. This testimony reviews recent trends in terrorism worldwide, examines the terrorist threat in the United States, and briefly discusses some of the problems of intelligence and physical security against terrorist attacks.
This report analyzes incidents recorded in The RAND Corporation's chronology of international terrorism for and A list of terrorist incidents involving harbors, offshore platforms, and ships at sea. Building on past studies of terrorism and low-level conflict, this report attempts to describe how contemporary international terrorism fits into the broader scheme of armed conflict in general. Reviews trends in international terrorism and nuclear incidents abroad during Presents a review of recent trends in terrorism and discusses possible future developments.
In an atmosphere of fear and alarm, extraordinary security precautions are being taken in the United States as a matter of prudence. That is what terrorism is really all about. A review of trends, tactics, and targets of terrorist attacks against diplomats since , and some suggestions for areas in which international cooperation could help solve the problem. This Note addresses the question: To what extent did the post-Watergate intelligence "rules" affect law enforcement's ability to investigate and prosecute cases of domestic terrorism?
This report summarizes the conclusions of a study of constraints on intelligence activities in the investigation of terrorist or terrorist-related crimes in the United States. A discussion of the processes and problems of communicating with terrorists during diplomatic kidnapping incidents. A review of the 48 assaults made on embassies by terrorists and other militants between and The author addresses the question of "What really is the Soviet role in international terrorism? Summarizes the most policy-relevant findings and conclusions from nine years of RAND research on terrorism. The government faces complex issues in developing effective anti-terrorist policies and capabilities.
An expanded version of the author's presentation before an international seminar on Terrorism and the Mass Media held in Sicily, April A discussion of measures required to do something effective about terrorism. For the United States, the problem lies mainly outside its borders and there it is a very serious problem.
The author believes that terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression, of gaining international attention, and of achieving limited political goals. A report intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer. Text of a speech describing perpetrators of potential criminal acts against nuclear programs in terms of their possible motivations, actions, methods, resources, and capabilities.
Surveys levels of terrorism in the United States and concludes that there does not appear to be a major terrorist threat in the United States at the present time. This paper identifies two areas of ignorance in the current study of the phenomenon of terrorism: how terrorists think and how terrorist groups make their decisions. Presents a scenario for simulation in negotiations with terrorists holding hostages.
Identifies and describes some of the critical attributes of groups or individuals who might carry out criminal actions against U. A summary of extensive oral and written statements by twenty-seven former high-ranking South Vietnamese military officers and civilians on their perceptions of the causes of the collapse of South Vietnam in Reviews recent trends in international terrorism. Terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression even though no terrorist group has yet achieved its stated long-range goals.
Bombing will probably remain the most common tactic. Coping with terrorism is not a matter of legislation. It is the ability to respond effectively to a new range of threats, and Congress can promote the development of the necessary instruments to combat terrorism. Discusses a recent effort to apply heuristic modeling techniques to the topic of international terrorism. In the following pages we examine 77 international hostage incidents and make a number of observations that are pertinent to the formulation of policy and procedures for handling episodes.
The possibility that criminals or political extremists might sabotage nuclear facilities, fabricate a nuclear explosive device, or disperse radioactive material has been the subject of numerous studies. Reports a discussion of implications for U. Describes observations on the experience of hostages held by terrorists, based on interviews with 40 former hostages, including American and foreign officials, businessmen kidnapped abroad, and private citizens kidnapped and held for ransom in the U.
A chronological listing and description of incidents of international terrorism, prepared as a supplement to R, International Terrorism: A Chronology, Terrorism for the most part is not mindless violence. Mass casualties do not serve the terrorists' goals and could alienate the population. While official war between nations seems increasingly impractical and unpopular, terrorism—violence for dramatic effect—is flourishing.
Considers the question of why many hostages kidnapped by guerrillas and terrorists develop amiable relations and sometimes affection for the captors who may kill them. A chronology of incidents of international terrorism that took place between and Most of the material is based on press reports, although other sources were used. Testimony given before the California State Assembly Committee on Energy and Diminishing Materials regarding the possibility that terrorists might steal fissionable material or nuclear weapons, attack nuclear facilities, or create nuclear hoaxes.
Terrorism is defined functionally as a campaign of violence designed to inspire fear, carried out by an organization, and devoted to political ends. Invited testimony for the California Assembly Judiciary and Criminal Justice committees on bills forbidding corporations and charitable trusts to pay ransom. Such bills are unlikely to accomplish their intended purpose of discouraging kidnappings. In the late s, the world's revolutionaries moved from rural to urban guerrilla warfare. How have they fared in the first three years of the decade? A discussion of the theory of terrorism, its utility and its effectiveness seen from the terrorists' point of view, the reason for terrorism's increase in the last few years, and some recent and possible future trends.
What is terrorism?
Right to Arms: USA
Who are the terrorists? What direction will terrorism take in the future? What will the consequences be? The author provides some insights into these four questions. Written as a report which might be filed from Saigon and Hanoi two years from now, a hypothetical scenario of what could happen in Vietnam between now and A political struggle continues after the ceasefire.
How will the Vietnam war end — or not end? A clear-cut victory by either side seems unobtainable now. An essay written in April on General Giap and the North Vietnamese gamble for a telling victory. The author synthesizes a five-stage strategy by which urban guerrillas could take over a city, and suggests government countermeasures. Guerrilla strategy began in the country, but has moved to the city. To a degree, the urbanization of guerrilla warfare signals its failure in the countryside.
A lack of men, money, and any firm guarantee that the U. Congress will continue, for very long, to provide funds to support South Vietnam's defense establishment at current levels makes it imperative for South Vietnam to reduce the economic Study views counterinsurgency in three levels of countertactics: police action; police protection from small squad and platoon-size guerrilla forces; and the containment, dispersal, and destruction of company and larger-size enemy units.
The Army's entire repertoire of warfare was designed for conventional war in Europe. In Vietnam, the Army simply performed its repertoire even though it was frequently irrelevant to the situation. This report explores these issues. The author concludes in this assessment of North Vietnamese war intentions that the arguments for continuing the struggle are too powerful to permit hopeful speculation over a North Vietnamese decision to quit the fight. Education M. Media Resources This researcher is available for interviews. More Experts. Previous Positions Captain, U. Comptroller General's advisory board.
Mar 6, United Press International. Mar 5, The Hill. Terrorists on the Border and Government Secrecy Detailed information on how many would-be terrorists may have sought to cross the southern border is being withheld on the grounds that it is sensitive. Feb 13, The Hill. Navigating the Latest Terrorism Trend Terrorists are increasingly using vehicles as attack weapons, killing more than people in the last 18 months. Dec 19, U. Dec 4, The Hill. Vehicular Terrorism: Weighing the Benefits, and Worth, of Prevention The terrorist attack in Barcelona has added urgency to discussions of what can be done to prevent terrorists from using vehicles as weapons.
Sep 5, Fox News Channel. The Islamic State's Disposable Army To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. Jun 20, U. Jun 19, Newsweek. Jun 16, Defense One. Jun 7, Fortune. Jun 5, The Hill. Apr 14, U.
Mar 16, United Press International. For U. Mar 6, The Hill. Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home It's not unreasonable to seek a review of immigration, and refugee-vetting procedures make sense. Feb 10, The Hill. Dealing with a Revanchist Russia The deployment of additional U. Feb 8, The National Interest. When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist? Jan 27, The Hill. Nov 18, The Hill. Nov 14, The Hill. More Able Than Ever to Combat Terrorism Acts of pure terrorism are truly arbitrary and extremely difficult to protect against, but they are rare.
Sep 26, Boston Herald. Sep 7, CTC Sentinel. Aug 22, The Mark News. Aug 22, The Cipher Brief. What's in a Name? Aug 8, The Hill. Jul 11, The Hill.